The recent hiring of Nico Hulkenberg by the Abu Dhabi Autonomous Racing League will have a significant impact on the silly season of the 2025 Formula 1 season, especially for teams at the back of the grid. Sauber, now known as Audi, has more time to secure their second driver, as their main target, Carlos Sainz from Ferrari, is taking time to make a decision in case there are openings at Red Bull or Mercedes. If Sauber delays finalizing both seats, there are still other viable options later in the year, such as Alpine drivers, extending Valtteri Bottas’ contract, or potentially recruiting Alex Albon from Williams. For any of these drivers, a move to Sauber in 2025 could be a wise long-term move.
Sauber is in a unique position as a back-of-the-grid team that has gained significant attention due to its imminent transformation into Audi. This has created a frenzy in the 2025 driver market, with the domino effect caused by Lewis Hamilton’s move from Mercedes to Ferrari. The signing of Hulkenberg seems to be out of sync with this domino effect, as he has taken control of his own destiny while other drivers wait for decisions from top teams. Haas has already been affected by Audi’s movements, losing Hulkenberg, and Alpine and Williams may also face consequences depending on Audi’s plans. Alpine, despite being a factory team, had a difficult start to the 2024 season, making it less appealing to drivers like Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly. Gasly’s manager has been exploring options with other teams, including Williams, but is giving Alpine a chance to prove it is the right place for his future. Alpine should try to retain at least one of their current drivers, with Gasly being the most likely candidate. However, there is no guarantee that Alpine can keep any of the drivers.
Ocon and Gasly’s options include Williams, which is actively seeking new drivers, given the likely replacement of Logan Sargeant next year. Williams has an option on Albon, but has not yet exercised it. Albon’s future with the team may depend on securing a long-term contract for 2025 and beyond. Williams is looking for a commitment from Albon and may let him go if he intends to move elsewhere in the future. Excluding the Red Bull situation, there are four drivers whose F1 careers are at risk: Bottas, Zhou Guanyu, Kevin Magnussen, and Sargeant. It is unlikely that more than two of them will remain on the grid next year, and all four may potentially leave F1. Bottas, despite being the strongest of the quartet, may need to seek opportunities elsewhere as he is unlikely to secure the remaining seat at Sauber. His experience and speed make him a desirable target for Alpine, Williams, and Haas. Hulkenberg’s departure from Haas has increased Magnussen’s chances of staying with the team, but there is still competition from drivers like Bottas.
Zhou’s future in F1 is uncertain, as he is slightly slower than Bottas in terms of speed. While this is not necessarily a bad thing, given Bottas’s experience, it puts Zhou at risk of leaving the grid. Zhou has had some bad luck, but has shown few errors and good teamwork. His potential in the Chinese market adds commercial value, but it seems that his best chance of staying in F1 would be to find a seat at Haas or Alpine, where he has been a junior driver before. Sargeant’s chances of staying in F1 are minimal, and he must turn his flashes of speed into consistent results to have any hope of securing a seat at Williams.
There are two highly regarded rookie drivers who are likely to be on the grid in 2025. Ollie Bearman, who made a sensational debut for Ferrari in Saudi Arabia, is expected to secure a seat at Haas. He has already impressed in his appearances in Free Practice 1 for Haas this year and seems to be in a strong position for a seat in 2025. His teammate at Prema Formula 2, Kimi Antonelli, is also a promising rookie who could race for either Mercedes or Williams next year, depending on his performance in F1 and F2 testing. There are even rumors that Antonelli could make his F1 debut for Williams later this year. Additionally, if Alpine has any openings, reserve driver Jack Doohan is well placed to secure a seat. Although he is not racing this year, his testing and simulator work has left a positive impression at Alpine. Other drivers like Liam Lawson, Felipe Drugovich, Theo Pourchaire, and Zane Maloney could also be contenders, but have not yet gained significant attention in the current season frenzy.
© 2024
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